In these days of profound uncertainty, it is comforting knowing that certain fundamental truths still exist and serve as guiding lights through the dark waters.
Malthusians have sadly taken over control of Western Governments. Malthusianism has always been popular amongst the Aristocracy, it gives them some guise of moral character, virtue signalling and a false pretense of ethics. While it is very profitable, because it creates scarcity. Scarcity = volatile markets, big price escalations which are excellent for vulture & casino capitalists. As a BlackRock exec admitted volatility is profitable. Stability is unprofitable.
Rent seekers always want prices to rise due to shortages. That's how they've managed to swindle the markets pushing housing prices into the stratosphere by using corrupt political interference in real estate administration. While the tech is now available to factory build homes or 3D print a small home for $5000. There is no reason for high rents & home prices except market manipulation.
Likewise for their devious efforts to stifle Nuclear Energy, both fission & fusion.
Fusion was proceeding at a linear steady pace. Between 1970 & 1997 fusion power produced in experimental Tokamaks grew a trillionX. Steady progress. Then some major power (now who would that be?) decided the way to go is an International Cooperative giant effort to make a giganormous Tokamak in one country, instead of spirited competition between nations. The pinnacle of bureaucratic boondoggles. Design began in 1992, approval in 2006, construction started in 2013. They spent 5yrs arguing about where to build it. $65B cost estimate now. Might finally start making plasma in 2034, and become operational in 2039. And it was already obsolete from the first shovelful of dirt to build it. And now has major problems due to the international cooperation components don't fit together properly.
ITER is a $65B boondoggle, whose purpose is to DELAY practical fusion, not achieve it, by misdirecting scant capital & skilled personnel from realistic fusion development:
ITER Is a Suicidal Plan That Would Discredit Nuclear Fusion, Scientist Says, Again:
That's no problem. Calculated dosage passing through the Van Allen belts to the moon and back is a meager 2.1 mSv. You will get 10mSv from a CAT scan. The overall dosage for a Moon mission is largely determined by the level of Solar Proton Flux. Which can in a bad year amount to 406mSv for an Apollo type Moon mission.
What is the purpose of a lunar base? Is it purely development of capabilities? A base for staging, or even refining, minerals mined from the asteroid belt?
You mentioned H3 on the dark side, but my understanding is that a pile of excrement would be the most valuable concentration of usable resources on the moon by a long shot.
There are vast benefits of a lunar base. From those you mentioned, to astronomy, tourism, minerals mining, low G & high vacuum manufacturing, human colonization and civilization survival.
Water & carbon resources are the most valuable resources on the Moon right now, because they are critical elements for any space development i.e. propellants, manufacturing, human food & fluids, etc. Once you acquire that resource, then other materials become far more valuable. You seem to think Day 1 of a human settlement is exactly the same as Day 20,000. Not true on Earth, not true on the Moon or anywhere else.
Even on Earth, when we develop a remotely located resource, you set up a regional base reasonably close to the resource, as a hub which serves as a transportation center, housing & entertainment for workers & their families, materials warehousing a manufacturing base for basic materials and a repair base for field equipment.
That is much more relevant for asteroid mining. Which aren't all in the asteroid belt, there are many valuable asteroids that are trojans of the Earth or on Earth orbit crossing orbits. The big thing is the Earth's giant gravity well that makes it just so expensive and material intensive to get supplies off of the Earth to space. For the SpaceX Starship it weighs 5000 tonnes in order to get 100-150 tonnes to low Earth orbit and 27 tonnes to a geosynchronous orbit. That is an immense waste of materials. Going the other way, sending materials from space to Earth is easy. You just use an ablative shell on a large mass and drop it into a shallow sea or desert area.
So you really want a base on the Moon & Mars for space industrial development, including asteroid mining. With asteroid mining likely to become a >$100 trillion industry. With the Moon, the key resources to discover are carbon and water. Which are there in adequate amounts, but exploration will be needed to locate them.
Excellent article!
Malthusians have sadly taken over control of Western Governments. Malthusianism has always been popular amongst the Aristocracy, it gives them some guise of moral character, virtue signalling and a false pretense of ethics. While it is very profitable, because it creates scarcity. Scarcity = volatile markets, big price escalations which are excellent for vulture & casino capitalists. As a BlackRock exec admitted volatility is profitable. Stability is unprofitable.
Rent seekers always want prices to rise due to shortages. That's how they've managed to swindle the markets pushing housing prices into the stratosphere by using corrupt political interference in real estate administration. While the tech is now available to factory build homes or 3D print a small home for $5000. There is no reason for high rents & home prices except market manipulation.
William Kay on Ecofascism and Landlordism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVhTlQJYOu8
Likewise for their devious efforts to stifle Nuclear Energy, both fission & fusion.
Fusion was proceeding at a linear steady pace. Between 1970 & 1997 fusion power produced in experimental Tokamaks grew a trillionX. Steady progress. Then some major power (now who would that be?) decided the way to go is an International Cooperative giant effort to make a giganormous Tokamak in one country, instead of spirited competition between nations. The pinnacle of bureaucratic boondoggles. Design began in 1992, approval in 2006, construction started in 2013. They spent 5yrs arguing about where to build it. $65B cost estimate now. Might finally start making plasma in 2034, and become operational in 2039. And it was already obsolete from the first shovelful of dirt to build it. And now has major problems due to the international cooperation components don't fit together properly.
ITER is a $65B boondoggle, whose purpose is to DELAY practical fusion, not achieve it, by misdirecting scant capital & skilled personnel from realistic fusion development:
ITER Is a Suicidal Plan That Would Discredit Nuclear Fusion, Scientist Says, Again:
news.newenergytimes.net/2020/12/05/iter-is-a-suicidal-plan-that-would-discredit-nuclear-fusion/
somewhere along the years, we stopped thinking
great shot of mr. trump at the podium.
rhe astronaut to the side can see satan's tail out of frame by his expression.
Hopefully 45 will return as 47 & get this done!
If mankind will find a solution to go through the Van Allen radiation belt, it can go to the moon maybe.
That's no problem. Calculated dosage passing through the Van Allen belts to the moon and back is a meager 2.1 mSv. You will get 10mSv from a CAT scan. The overall dosage for a Moon mission is largely determined by the level of Solar Proton Flux. Which can in a bad year amount to 406mSv for an Apollo type Moon mission.
What is the purpose of a lunar base? Is it purely development of capabilities? A base for staging, or even refining, minerals mined from the asteroid belt?
You mentioned H3 on the dark side, but my understanding is that a pile of excrement would be the most valuable concentration of usable resources on the moon by a long shot.
There are vast benefits of a lunar base. From those you mentioned, to astronomy, tourism, minerals mining, low G & high vacuum manufacturing, human colonization and civilization survival.
Water & carbon resources are the most valuable resources on the Moon right now, because they are critical elements for any space development i.e. propellants, manufacturing, human food & fluids, etc. Once you acquire that resource, then other materials become far more valuable. You seem to think Day 1 of a human settlement is exactly the same as Day 20,000. Not true on Earth, not true on the Moon or anywhere else.
I was just wondering why we wouldn’t go straight to the asteroid belt and start mining.
I think tourism, colonization and civilization survival is probably better done on Mars.
Thanks for your comment.
Even on Earth, when we develop a remotely located resource, you set up a regional base reasonably close to the resource, as a hub which serves as a transportation center, housing & entertainment for workers & their families, materials warehousing a manufacturing base for basic materials and a repair base for field equipment.
That is much more relevant for asteroid mining. Which aren't all in the asteroid belt, there are many valuable asteroids that are trojans of the Earth or on Earth orbit crossing orbits. The big thing is the Earth's giant gravity well that makes it just so expensive and material intensive to get supplies off of the Earth to space. For the SpaceX Starship it weighs 5000 tonnes in order to get 100-150 tonnes to low Earth orbit and 27 tonnes to a geosynchronous orbit. That is an immense waste of materials. Going the other way, sending materials from space to Earth is easy. You just use an ablative shell on a large mass and drop it into a shallow sea or desert area.
So you really want a base on the Moon & Mars for space industrial development, including asteroid mining. With asteroid mining likely to become a >$100 trillion industry. With the Moon, the key resources to discover are carbon and water. Which are there in adequate amounts, but exploration will be needed to locate them.